Is the magnitude of the March increase undecided?

It seems 100% certain that the members of the Federal Reserve will decide to start an upward cycle of the reference interest rate at their next meeting in March, but it is not clear if that increase will be 0.25% or 0.50%.
According to derivative instruments , the increase will be 0.25%

For the next meeting in March, the probability of an increase of 0.25% in the reference interest rate, calculated from the instruments derived from interest rates, stood at 86.7% at the close of Monday, while that the probability of an increase of 0.50% was 13.3%.
Opinions divided among investment banks

According to Reuters, 4 of the 11 main banks estimate that the monetary policy tightening cycle will begin in March with a 0.50% increase in the benchmark interest rate.

Citibank and Deutsche Bank estimate that the monetary authorities will increase the reference interest rate by 0.50% in March and will also make 4 additional increases of 0.25% during the rest of the year, to bring it up to the 1.50%-1 range. .75%.

On the other hand, HSBC and Credit Suisse also estimate a first increase of 0.50%, but it will be followed by 5 increases of 0.25% before the end of 2022, so the rate would be in the 1.75% range. -2% in December this year.
Bowman considers it necessary to wait for more information

Michelle Bowman, a voting member of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee, does not rule out an increase of 0.50% in the benchmark interest rate at the meeting to be held between March 15 and 16.

"I support an increase at the next meeting, and if the economy performs as I expect, additional increases will be necessary in the coming months," Bowman said Monday.

"I think between now and then it's very important that we look at how the economy is developing and understand if the situation is getting better or worse," Bowman said.

When asked if the increase should be 0.25% or 0.50%, he replied that "it is too early to decide."
Relevant information to be published before the meeting

Before the next meeting of the Federal Reserve, three inflation figures will be published that could be decisive for the decision about the magnitude of the increase in the reference interest rate.

This Friday, the variation of the index that reflects the behavior of spending on personal consumption corresponding to the month of January will be known. This is the preferred inflation indicator of the monetary authorities.

On the other hand, on March 10 they will publish the inflation at the level of consumers corresponding to the month of February, while on March 15 the variation of the price index at the level of producers will be known .

Additionally, on March 4 they will publish the employment report for the month of February.